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Infrastructure & Project Finance

Global Home > Infrastructure & Project Finance
Outlooks 2020

Financing Evolving for North American Energy Infrastructure in 2020

The evolution in financing for energy infrastructure projects will continue into next year. Fitch is maintaining its stable outlook for North American Energy Infrastructure with most project financings reflecting fixed-price off-take agreements that minimize revenue and margin volatility.

Releated ReportNorth American Energy Infrastructure

Outlooks 2020

U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Growth to Mirror Slower GDP in 2020

Volume growth remains favorable for U.S. airports, ports and toll roads and will remain largely tethered to U.S. GDP movement, which Fitch projects will fall below 2% for 2020. That said, "Some softness in growth may take hold to the extent issuers are exposed to global economic markets and protectionist trade policies," said Senior Director Scott Zuchorski.

Outlooks 2020

Latam 2020 Infrastructure Outlook Stable

Latin American Infrastructure credits will enter 2020 with the region expecting a mild recovery and seven of its 19 rated sovereigns in Negative Outlook. Discontent centered on economic issues is rising, along with political risk, according to a new Fitch Ratings report.

Webinar

Global Shipping and Ports – 2020 Outlook

Thursday 12 December
09:00 GMT | 17:00 HKT

Fitch Ratings would like to invite you to a live webinar where we will discuss our outlook for Global Shipping and Ports with our Transportation and Infrastructure Analysts. Topics will include: 

  • Capacity growth levels and the supply/demand balance
  • U.S. and China trade tariffs and their impact on global trade
  • IMO 2020 regulation coming into effect on Jan 1

Register Now


Related Research:
Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: Global Shipping

Cordon Pricing May Boost US City Public Transit Usage, Revenue

Well-designed cordon pricing (CP) has the potential to reduce traffic and raise revenue for highly congested US cites, which can help fund public transit. CP is effective at quickly and materially reducing congestion and vehicle trips, while increasing transit usage, as shown in several European cities using CP. However, CP in isolation may not meet public policy goals unless there is substantial investment in a region's transit system.

Outlooks 2020

EMEA Renewable Energy: 2020 Outlooks

The sector outlook reflects a stable regulatory environment and continuing cost declines. European countries are now looking towards the ambitious target of achieving a 32% share of renewable energies in gross final energy consumption by 2030. The sector is maturing, and industry consolidation and technology improvements are positive for it.
 

Managed Lanes Performance Strong but Untested in Recession

Performance among Fitch-rated managed lanes (MLs) is strong with fiscal YTD 2019 total revenue rising by a median of 21%. This is in line with a longer trend of robust ML performance. Growth is supported by accommodative economic conditions, low gas prices, and solid population and generally higher growth in regions with MLs.

Webinar On Demand

Nashville Airport Subordinate Airport Revenue Bond Series 2019A&B

Fitch hosted a webinar to discuss our new rating of Metropolitan Nashville Airport Authority. Please join Scott Zuchorski, Seth Lehman, and Jeffrey Lack for a discussion of the airport, our rating, and our thought process.

 

Register Now

Increased NFL Viewership Reinforces League Strength

After viewership declines during the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the rebound in National Football League (NFL) audience numbers that began in 2018 and continues into 2019 reinforces the value of the franchise to broadcasters, says Fitch Ratings.

Shape of Next US Economic Cycle Will Inform USPF Macro Stress

The federal government's two primary tools to stimulate the economy, fiscal and monetary policy, may be constrained relative to previous cycles, potentially exacerbating cyclical US public finance (USPF) funding deficits and delaying the rebuilding of issuer reserves during and coming out of the next downturn. More limited possibilities for aggressive macro policy easing could culminate in a slower path of recovery after any future recession.

Performance Still Turbulence Free for U.S. Airports

Various broader market developments have not had an effect thus far on performance for U.S. airports, according to Fitch Ratings in its latest annual peer review for the sector.  Positive rating activity has remained largely on pace for U.S. airports year over year with Fitch upgrading nine ratings for seven airports against no rating downgrades.

Webinar

Reducing Aviation CO2 Emissions - Winners and Losers

Please listen to a webinar where we discussed the impact on airlines, airports and rail sectors of reducing aviation net CO2 emissions.

 

Listen Now

Webinar and Interactive Tool

North American Project Finance: Lessons Learned

Fitch Ratings’ Infrastructure analytical team has published a report and interactive tool outlining the lessons we’ve learned covering various North American P3 projects.


You can listen to Fitch’s on-demand webinar on the subject here. The full report is downloadable from the webinar platform.
 

View the Interactive Tool

 

Lower Traffic Growth to Cut Emissions May Disrupt Airline Sector

Targeted reductions in net CO2 emissions in aviation are not achievable without a combination of prudent management of air traffic growth and financially demanding regulation. Government policies that could curb air travel and incentivise alternative choices could disrupt the aviation sector and may have credit implications, but this is unlikely to happen in the short to medium term.

North American Infrastructure Projects Are Complex, Require Unique Solutions

North American Infrastructure projects are complex undertakings that require careful coordination among multiple parties to adequately address risks and avoid delays, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report.

P3s Can Fund Higher Ed Projects While Preserving Balance Sheets

Public private partnerships (P3s) can help fill infrastructure funding gaps for colleges and universities, says Fitch Ratings. In the face of flat or reduced state funding, public universities in particular will need to find other sources of funding to address aging infrastructure and ongoing capital needs.

No Cali Blackout Near-Term Effect on Infrastructure, Municipals

Blackouts in California as a precaution against conditions conducive to wildfires do not have an immediate effect on infrastructure or municipal credit.

Growth Likely to Level Off for U.S. Transportation

Growth prospects remain healthy for all three major U.S. transportation segments heading into next year, though the trajectory figures to level off somewhat according to Fitch Ratings in its latest annual report.

Fitch Ratings Launches ESG Heat Map for Public Finance/Infrastructure

Fitch Ratings has launched an ESG 'heat map' for Public Finance/Infrastructure to provide further insight into the relevance of ESG factors to credit ratings. The map is designed to help users understand how relevant individual ESG topics are to credit ratings for different sub-sectors across Global Public Finance, Infrastructure and Project Finance issuers.

Special Report

U.S. Fiscal Weakening Could Hit Public Finance, Financial Credits

Low borrowing costs have helped to temper political concerns over rising federal deficits and debt in recent years. However, Fitch Ratings believes that public finances could emerge as a greater issue for U.S. policymakers if borrowing costs rise or if the deficit increases sharply during a future downturn.
 

Full ReportThe Coming Storm: Effects of U.S. Fiscal Deterioration on Key Sectors

Pre-Recession Peak Enplanements Not Just for Large U.S. Airports Anymore

Enplanement levels for U.S. airports are now at their highest in over a decade, though the improvement is more striking for smaller hubs that had tougher hills to climb following the recession according to Fitch Ratings in a new report. Still unknown however, is if this improvement is sustainable for smaller airports in the longer term.

Toll Road Traffic Recovery Paths Diverge for Portugal and Italy

Italian recovery lags behind and its toll roads traffic is still 2% below the 2007 levels, even though it had a milder trough of about 10%.

Great Hall Termination Will Not Hit DIA or Project's Rating

The announced termination of the Great Hall public-private partnership terminal redevelopment project at Denver International Airport (DIA) will not adversely affect either the airport's ratings or those tied to the project itself, according to Fitch Ratings.

SNC Pulling out of PPPs Symptom of Completion Risk Challenges

The recent decision by SNC-Lavalin (SNC) to withdraw from bidding on a number of high-profile Public-Private Partnership projects (PPP or P3) highlights Fitch Ratings' view that the market for PPPs has become increasingly competitive and that project completion is one of the most significant risks to a project. 
 

Webinar on Demand

ESG Relevance Scores - Webinar and What Investors Want to Know

Fitch has just published a "What Investors Want to Know" report about our ESG scores and methodologies based on questions received from investors. Please click the link below to watch our on-demand webinar on our ESG methodology in US Public Finance, and Infrastructure and Project Finance.  Listen Now

Lower Renewable Capital Costs to Spur EU-US Deployment Race

Falling capital costs have made renewables competitive with other energy sources and should accelerate the pace of renewable adoption in both the EU and US. The EU has one of the world's highest shares of non-hydro renewables in its electricity generation mix, twice as high as the US's. The EU's consistent regulatory drive to grow renewable energy and the cheap and abundant natural gas in the US that competes with renewables are the main factors behind the different penetration.

Plenary Roads Denver Has Flexibility to Withstand US 36 Slope Failure

Fitch Ratings continues to monitor a slope failure on part of US 36 that is expected to cause a temporary decline in traffic and toll revenues for Plenary Roads Denver (PRD). Phase 1 of US 36, which includes the damaged portion, was constructed by an Ames/Granite joint venture under a separate design-build contract with the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT), not by PRD. 
 

Fitch Rates Sirius Minerals' HY Notes 'B(EXP)'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings has assigned Sirius Minerals Plc's proposed USD500 million high yield bond issue an expected rating of 'B(EXP)' with a Stable Outlook The final rating is contingent on the receipt of final documents materially conforming to information already received. The expected rating reflects the mining project's complex and large-scale construction works, the lack of fixed-price date-certain construction contracts and a reliance on key contractors due to the application of bespoke technology. 

APAC Ports' Tight Rating Range Show Qualitative Factors Are Key

The ports in the Asia-Pacific rated by Fitch Ratings carry ratings of either 'BBB-' or 'BBB', but their leverage varies greatly from 2.9x to 10.2x, underscoring the importance of qualitative factors in assigning the ratings.

Unique Feature Helps "Trap" Risk for Canadian PPPs

Canadian public private partnerships (PPPs) are susceptible to cost overruns like other PPPs throughout the world, though a new Fitch Ratings report cites a unique feature commonly seen in Canadian projects that protects lenders by helping to offset some of that risk.

Webinar

Alternative Infrastructure Assets, what are they and how do we rate them?

 

We recently published a special report explaining what Alternative Infrastructure Assets (“A-I-A”) are and how we rate them using Key Ratings Drivers and relevant metrics typically consistent with our master criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance.

 

Please join us on the webinar to hear more about our approach to this sector

 

Listen Now

Declining Costs and Increased Demand Set Solar-Plus-Storage Up for Expansion

Solar-plus-storage projects appear poised for a dramatic expansion against a backdrop of rapidly declining battery costs and an increasing need for grid management solutions as renewables become ubiquitous in the dispatch stack

3D Printing May Disrupt Ports and Reduce US Imports from China

3DP could reduce global trade, including reducing US imports from China by 10%-25%. Short- and medium-term risks are limited due to a still emerging technology uptake.

U.S. Managed Lanes Speeding Past Projections

Performance is exceeding projections for eight managed lanes that are currently up and running, according to Fitch Ratings in its latest peer review for U.S. managed lane projects.

LAUSD Proposes Improved FY 2020 Budget Despite Parcel Tax Measure Failure

Despite the Los Angeles Unified School District's failure last week to win voter approval for a parcel tax, the district is anticipating stronger financial results for fiscal years 2020 to 2022 than previously projected

Unique Infrastructure Traits Key to Our Alternative Infra Approach

The Alternative Infrastructure Assets (A-I-A) approach is warranted when assets or activities show certain attributes associated with infrastructure assets, such as a type of service or a demand profile, as well as similar financing methods

Webinar on Demand

Evaluating KCI’s Airport Modernization Program

Kansas City International Airport’s obligation bonds ‘A’, outlook stable. Fitch will discuss the key risks it evaluated in its analysis of KCI’s nearly $1 billion debt issuance.

Speaker:
Scott Zuchorski – Senior Director, Global Infrastructure and Project Finance

Seth Lehman – Senior Director, Global Infrastructure and Project Finance

Jeffrey Lack – Director, Global Infrastructure and Project Finance

 

Listen Now

Webinar

ESG Relevance Scores for US Public Finance, and Infrastructure and Project Finance

Now Available On-Demand
 

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors are increasingly important for investment decisions, which is why Fitch has introduced ESG relevance scores to show relevance and materiality of ESG to ratings.

 

Speakers:

Laura Porter Managing Director, US Public Finance (Moderator)

Andrew Steel Managing Director, Sustainable Finance

Sara AnzingerDirector, Sustainable Finance

Michael RinaldiSenior Director, US Public Finance

Scott Zuchorski – Managing Director, US Infrastructure and Project Finance

Glaucia Calp – Managing Director, LATAM Infrastructure and Project Finance
 

Listen Now

Rental Car Demand at Some U.S. Airports Losing Steam

The advent of driverless cars and mobile technology is sapping some demand for rental car facilities at some U.S. airports of late, which according to Fitch Ratings, will make a deeper dive into credit risks for these facilities more imperative over time.

What Investors Want to Know: Global Performance of Renewables (Questions from Roundtable Webcast)

In January 2019, Fitch Ratings published a special report, "Global Renewables Performance Review", which summarized the key takeaways from more than a decade of experience in rating and monitoring operational wind and solar projects across the globe.

Weak Enforcement of UEFA Fair Play Limits Positive Impact

The weak enforcement of the Union of European Football Associations' (UEFA) Financial Fair Play rules limits their positive effects, Fitch Ratings says. However, they are mildly credit positive in the long term as they should encourage all clubs to be more financially stable.

Introducing ESG Relevance Scores for Public Finance and Infrastructure

ESG factors generally have a low level of direct impact on public finance and infrastructure credit ratings. However, governance is the most influential ESG risk factor across the overall ratings portfolio. This was driven by public finance issuers, which is not surprising given that factors such as political stability, creditor rights, financial transparency, governance structure, government independence and control of corruption are important considerations in our credit rating process. 
 

DownloadOur ESG Relevance Scores
Watch VideoIntroducing ESG Relevance Scores - An Update for Public Finance and Infrastructure

US Infrastructure Needs Federal Funding Commitment

Any US federal government plan for renewing infrastructure will need to provide for consistent, continued federal funding and more diverse funding sources to fully address the infrastructure deficit.

From Defying Expectations to a Future of 'Required Reinvention' for Sports

Sports have proven to be a very stable discretionary asset over the last 10 years thanks largely to robust fan bases, corporate support and long-term media contracts. Demand for sports are expected to remain high across the world over the next decade. However, some sports may experience declining support from today's fans and corporations as interests change and competition from other sports and entertainment grows.

Webinar On Demand

What Investors Want to Know: UK Contract for Difference Scheme and Offshore Wind

Fitch’s recently assessed the risk of a major UK off-shore wind project where the revenue supported by a Contract for Difference (“CfD”) mechanism.  We have prepared a brief audio summary that discusses the key points of this mechanism.

Listen on Demand

UK Transport Infrastructure Could Manage Short-Term No-Deal Disruption

Rated UK transport infrastructure issuers are generally well placed to weather short-term disruption in traffic and trade flows in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit, Fitch Ratings says, thanks to their robust liquidity positions and financial flexibility.

 

Audio Summary: 5 minute listen
Listen Now

The WhyForum

Why U.S. Infrastructure Needs More Impactful Money, Not Just More of It

President Trump, the Speaker of the House and the Minority Leader of the US Senate are on the right track in seeking a $2 trillion dollar down payment on US infrastructure. But there are key issues at play here in spending money wisely given the decades-old problem. 

Fitch Named Best Rating Agency in APAC in Record 5 Categories

Fitch has won the Credit Rating Agency of the Year (2018) awards for the corporate, investment-grade, public-finance, project-finance and sovereign categories. It is the agency's first award for the investment-grade category, and the fourth consecutive win for public finance.

EMEA Toll Roads – 2018 Peer Review

Listen to our latest on demand webinar, EMEA Toll Roads - 2018 Peer Review, available now, on demand. The presentation focuses on a review of Sovereign developments and M&A activity that drove the changes in EMEA toll roads’ ratings and outlooks in 2018 as well as touching on key differentiating factors that drive the ratings and explains the differences in Fitch Ratings’ EMEA toll roads peer group: traffic volatility, debt structure and leverage over the remaining concession life.

Contacts

Global

Daniel Champeau

Analytical Group Head

+1 212 908 9188

Global

Cherian George

Global Sector Head

+1 212 908 0519

Global

Ann Flynn

Business Group Head

+1 212 908 9152

APAC

Sajal Kishore

Analytical

+65 6796 7095

APAC

Amit Ganju

Business

+65 6796 7201

EMEA

Ian Dixon

Analytical

+44 203 530 1815

EMEA

Michael Androsov

Business

+44 203 530 1096

LATAM

Glaucia Calp

Analytical

+57 1 326 9999

LATAM

Samuel Fox

Business

+1 312 606 2307

North America

Scott Zuchorski

North America Analytical

(1) 212 908 0659x1659

North America

Saavan Gatfield

Business

+ 1 212 908 0542

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