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Sovereign Trends in Central America

As a result of political polarization, fiscal constraints, and rising tensions with the U.S. over immigration policy, Central America faces political instability; currently, three out of five countries in the region have negative outlooks. In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, co-Head of Latin American Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director of Sovereign Ratings, discuss the latest trends in Central America Sovereigns as well as the more common themes behind some of the recent negative rating actions.


Corporate Trends in Chile

Fitch Ratings hosted a webinar with Rina Jarufe and Joe Bormann in the Latin America Corporate Ratings group. Rina and Joe provided an overview on cross-border Chilean corporates. Listen Now


Colombian Corporate Trends under Duque’s Administration

Now Available On-Demand


Fitch Ratings hosted a webcast with Natalia O’Byrne and Joe Bormann, in the Latin America Corporate Ratings Group, to discuss the trends in Colombian corporates under Duque’s administration. Topics of discussion include Fitch’s rating outlook, credit strengths and concerns in the sector.

Listen Now

Growth Slump A Factor in LatAm Negative Rating Pressures

Negative sovereign rating pressures in Latin America/Caribbean have increased since the beginning of the year, with eight out of 20 sovereigns now on Negative Outlook. While the factors driving downgrades and negative outlook revisions differ in each case, weak and uneven growth, persistent fiscal challenges, increasing debt burdens (or greater risks posed by contingent liabilities in the case of Mexico), restricted market access for some, and political risk have been notable factors negatively affecting sovereign credits in 2019. 

LatAm Corporates Off to Slower than Expected Start in 2019

"Escalating global trade tensions and policy uncertainty have taken the wind out of the sails for economic growth expectations across most of Latin America during the first quarter of 2019," said Jay Djemal, Senior Director. 

Fixed Interest Podcast

Fitch Downgrades Mexico to 'BBB'; Outlook Revised to Stable

The downgrade of Mexico's IDRs reflects a combination of the increased risk to the sovereign's public finances from Pemex's deteriorating credit profile together with ongoing weakness in the macroeconomic outlook, which is exacerbated by external threats from trade tensions, some domestic policy uncertainty and ongoing fiscal constraints. 

RelatedFitch Downgrades PEMEX to 'BB+' Following Sovereign Downgrade

Mexico's Latest Oil Tax Cuts Alone Are Insufficient for PEMEX

Friday's implementation of an additional tax reduction for PEMEX is insufficient to stabilize the company's credit quality as an isolated measure, but it is one more step in the right direction.

Podcast: Fixed Interest

Risks Remain for Argentina in 2019​

Shelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss the Negative Rating Outlook for the country against a backdrop of continuing high inflation, economic contraction, as well as a competitive presidential election in October.

Brazil's Rating Outlook Amid Sluggish Growth & Persistent Fiscal Challenges

Shelly Shetty, head of Latin American Sovereigns, explains how Brazil’s current sluggish growth and fiscal challenges may inhibit near-term economic growth, but improved debt stabilization and controlled inflation may indicate future recovery.


Latin America Mega Borrowers

Now Available On-Demand


Fitch Ratings is hosting a webcast on the largest Emerging Market borrowers in Latin America. Senior analysts from the Latin America Corporate Ratings Group will provide forecast snapshots on the following mid to low investment-grade issuers with the highest adjusted debt: America Movil, Ecopetrol, Petrobras and Suzano. 


Daniel Kastholm - Managing Director and Regional Group Head, Latin America Corporate Ratings (moderator)
Lucas Aristizabal - Senior Director and Head of Latin America Energy 
Fernanda Rezende - Senior Director, Latin America Corporate Ratings (Fitch Brazil)
Sul Ahmad - Associate Director, Latin America Corporate Ratings 


Listen Now


¡Fitch on Mexico! - PEMEX. Governance. AMLO. Regulation.

Now Available On-Demand

Fitch Ratings presented a live webcast of its panel discussion in New York with senior analysts from the Latin America group to discuss the economic prospects and challenges that Mexico faces in 2019. Topics of discussion include an overview on the macroeconomic backdrop, government support of PEMEX, and the various credit factors affecting the corporate, banking and non-bank financial sectors. 


Listen Now

Rate Cuts Won't Do Much to Boost Mexico Loan Growth

Implications of lower interest rates for the Mexican financial system would be mixed. Effects from the interest rate cycle could be negative for the banking sector over the medium term, with mixed effects on banks depending on their funding structure. Sensitivity to rates, coupled with potential legislation reducing fee income, continues to contribute to Fitch's negative outlook on the banking sector.

Bank Loans Helpful but Brazilian States' Funding Gap Remains

Private bank loans may help provide a means to fund obligations in the near term, such as salaries and pensions. However, because loan amounts are effectively capped by the amount of the federal guarantee, the loans are unlikely to have a meaningful effect on states' budgets. 

LATAM Negative Rating Pressures Have Mounted

Negative rating pressures have mounted for some Latin American sovereigns over the past six months. We revised the Outlooks of four countries - Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and Mexico - to Negative from Stable since the beginning of fourth-quarter 2018. As a result, eight sovereigns in the region now have Negative Outlooks while none have a Positive Outlook.


Mexico Corporates After AMLO’s First 100 Days

Now Available On-Demand

Fitch Ratings hosted a webcast with Alberto Moreno and Sergio Rodriguez, in Fitch Ratings’ Latin America Corporate Ratings Group, to discuss the credit factors affecting Mexican corporates.


Listen Now


Risks to Argentine Credits Remain High

Risk factors that were reflected in Fitch's decision to revise Argentina's Rating Outlook to Negative from Stable last November have not abated even though targets under the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) have been met so far. 

Big LATAM Economies Remain Under Scrutiny

Sovereigns in Latin America continue to face negative rating pressures despite a cyclical economic recovery. Growth in the region will likely remain modest and highly uneven in 2019, with larger economies remaining on a fairly sluggish growth path or, in the case of Argentina, posting another annual contraction. 

Ecuador New Economic Plan Could Stabilize Rating Outlook

Successful implementation of Ecuador's new economic plan could help stabilize the sovereign's Rating Outlook by reducing the fiscal deficit, easing financing constraints and diversifying funding sources. However, significant implementation risks exist, owing to the likely political unpopularity of key reform measures. 

2019 Latin American Corporates Spotlight: Credit Benchmark Series

Jay Djemal, Head of Credit Research for Latin America Corporates, gives an overview of Fitch’s series of Spotlights that benchmark nine major issuers from Latin America against their main developed market peers.


PDVSA: ¿no le compran petróleo?

Según un reporte de la agencia S&P Platts, la oferta de 5,8 millones de barriles de petróleo para ser transportado entre marzo y junio de la petrolera estatal venezolana no está recibiendo oferta de los compradores tradicionales. El análisis con Lucas Aristizabal, director sénior de Fitch Ratings Latinoamérica.


Sovereign Hot Spots: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa

Now On-Demand

Fitch Ratings is hosting a panel discussion with senior analysts from the global Sovereigns team to discuss our most asked about “Hot Spots”.

Topics of discussion will include:

  • Argentina: Macro Policy Adjustment and Risks Ahead
  • Brazil: Is the Optimism Justified?
  • Mexico: Factors to Resolve its Negative Outlook
  • Turkey: Navigating Economic Adjustment, Policy Settings, and Political Risks
  • South Africa: Weak Growth, Fiscal Pressures, and Risks Around Parliamentary Elections

Available On-Demand Here


Fitch Ratings: An Overview on Vale

NOW Available On-Demand

Fitch Ratings hosted a webcast with Phillip Wrenn, the primary analyst on Vale, and Joe Bormann, Deputy Regional Group Head, in Fitch Ratings’ Latin American corporates group.  Topics of discussion include the factors affecting the credit rating of Vale after its recent downgrade along with other key rating drivers. Questions from the audience were also addressed. 


La Perspectiva de Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) - Ahora Disponible en Español

Ahora Disponible Bajo Demanda

Fitch realizó un webcast con Lucas Aristizabal, analista primario para PEMEX. Tópicos de discusión incluyeron una reseña sobre Pemex en vista de su reciente baja de calificación y otros factores de calificación clave. La versión en español ahora está disponible a pedido.

Fitch Ratings LATAM Spotlight: Nemak Enjoys Strong Competitive Position Compared to Peers

Nemak's highly complex and technologically innovative aluminum castings create a very strong competitive position when compared to peers Borg Warner and Dana.



Daniel Kastholm


+1 312 368 2070

Financial Institutions

Alejandro Garcia


+52 81 8399 9100


Glaucia Calp


+57 1 326 9999


Kathleen Holtzman


+1 212 908 9103


Shelly Shetty


+1 212 908 0324

Structured Finance

Maria Paula Moreno V.


+1 312 606 2399

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